Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?

Editor's Pick

The 2024 Republican field winnows just as you’d expect

Mike Pence was never going to win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. If space aliens arrived on earth the day before the Iowa caucuses and kidnapped every single declared candidate except the former vice president, he would still probably have come in second, with just about any other Republican in the country edging him out after launching a campaign at midnight.

It’s not just that Pence was unpopular with Republicans, though he was. It’s also that his political identity is intertwined with Donald Trump’s, first as the former president’s sycophantic enabler and then as the guy unfairly maligned as the proximate cause of Trump’s removal from office.

Pence announced his candidacy in June anyway. And, very predictably, he announced his withdrawal from the race this weekend. He lasted 145 days.

This is about what you’d expect of a candidate who didn’t make it to Iowa. Since 2000, Republicans in contested primary contests who have left the race before Iowa dropped out about 91 days before the caucuses after campaigns lasting about 160 days. Pence left about 80 days before the caucuses.

To date, about a third of the original 2024 Republican field has dropped out. That, too, is normal; since 2000, an average of one-third of the GOP field in a contested primary doesn’t make it to Iowa. Their campaigns were, on average, about 130 days long. That’s relatively short; candidates who didn’t make it to Iowa since 2000 generally have had campaigns that lasted about 160 days.

You may be somewhat bewildered by this announcement that already a third or only a third of the GOP field has already bowed out. It depends, of course, on whom you count as a Republican candidate.

Technically, there are more than 270 Republicans who’ve filed to seek the GOP nomination. Some subset of those candidates are considered at least putatively viable, using benchmarks that are often nebulous and fungible.

Maybe you don’t consider North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum a viable candidate; maybe you do think that Kandy Kaye Horn is. There’s some subjectivity to it, admittedly. I mean, as stipulated at the outset, Pence was never going to win the nomination. So why include him in the mix in the first place? It’s a debate for another day.

For now, we simply observe that the Republican field is narrowing as we’d expect, with candidates who have no shot at the nomination running out of cash and running out of options. That it’s happening now to this percentage of the original field is very much in line with the past several nominating cycles.

That it happened to Pence is very much in line with what any rational observer would have expected.

This post appeared first on The Washington Post

Enter Your Information Below To Receive Free Trading Ideas, Latest News And Articles.






    Your information is secure and your privacy is protected. By opting in you agree to receive emails from us. Remember that you can opt-out any time, we hate spam too!

    You May Also Like

    Editor's Pick

    LIVE OAK, Fla. — President Biden traveled to Florida on Saturday to survey the damage caused by Hurricane Idalia, part of a storm response...

    Stock

    President Biden is asking his Cabinet to ‘aggressively execute’ plans for federal employees to return to their offices for work this fall after years...

    Economy

    Union members at Ford, Stellantis and General Motors have ratified a new 4½-year contract, locking in at 11% pay increases secured after a six-week...

    Stock

    A group of House Democrats penned a letter Thursday to several top Biden administration and White House officials, demanding the immediate continuance of uninterrupted...

    Disclaimer: beneficialinvestmentnow.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.


    Copyright © 2024 beneficialinvestmentnow.com