US rate futures price in more Fed easing in December and 2025

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Futures on the federal funds rate, which measure the cost of unsecured overnight loans between banks, priced in on Thursday another 25-basis-point rate cut next month, after the Federal Reserve lowered rates by the same magnitude at the end of its two-day policy meeting.

Rate futures also implied another 67 bps of reductions for 2025, LSEG calculations showed.

The central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.50%-4.75% range, as widely expected. The decision was unanimous.

The statement also noted that economic growth remains solid, while inflation continues to move towards the Fed’s 2% target.

“Today’s rate cut indicates that the Fed has continued to see positive signs when it comes to inflation and the economy as a whole following its last rate cut,” said Michele Raneri, vice president and head of U.S. research and consulting at TransUnion (NYSE:TRU) in Chicago.

“It is anticipated that there will be subsequent cuts as we move into 2025. The hope is that this will continue to stimulate consumer activity in the credit market, particularly when looking at credit products that have been sluggish in recent quarters.”

The fed fund futures has attached a 72% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates at its policy meeting next month.