UBS lifts year-end target for S&P 500 to 5,850 points

(Reuters) – UBS Global Research on Tuesday raised its year-end target for the benchmark S&P 500 index to 5,850 points from an earlier projection of 5,600, boosted by corporate profit growth, supportive macro-economic backdrop and interest rate cuts.

The index, which has gained 22.85% so far in 2024, jumped to a record closing high of 5,859.85 points a day earlier.

“Rate cuts should lower interest expense and default risk, adding to both EPS (earnings-per-share) and valuations,” analysts led by Jonathan Golub said.

“Financial conditions point to less stress/more liquidity, a positive for valuations,” they added.

UBS also raised its 2025 year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,400 from 6,000 earlier. Strength in technology stocks could help the index further, it said.

The U.S. central bank in September kicked off an anticipated series of interest rate cuts with a larger-than-usual half-percentage-point reduction that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said was meant to show commitment to sustaining a low unemployment rate as inflation had eased.

UBS expects the Fed to cut rates by 250 basis points through 2026 and said a sharp decline in interest rates could likely lift profit margins by 20 basis points.