Mexican executives brace for economic stagnation as Trump returns, poll shows

By Aida Pelaez-Fernandez

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – A majority of business executives in Mexico see the country’s economy stagnating in 2025 amid uncertainty around changes in government in the U.S. and Mexico as well as global geopolitical and trade conflicts, a survey published on Friday found.

BY THE NUMBERS

About 60% of the nearly 700 executives surveyed by consultancy KPMG expected the Mexican economy to stagnate in 2025, while 24% predicted a recession.

CONTEXT

A threat by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in November to levy a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico on his first day back in office has posed a test for Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, who has sought to quell fears about the future of the key trade relationship with the U.S.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

Mexico is the United States’ top trading partner. The Bank of Mexico forecasts the economy to grow 1.2% in 2025, down from a forecast of 1.8% in 2024.

KEY QUOTE

KPMG’s Ricardo Delfin highlighted Trump’s return and his tariff threats to Mexico, as well as the U.S.’s trade tensions with China, as significant contributors to global complexity.

“We have to learn to live in and adapt to destructive and complex worlds,” Delfin, KPMG’s clients and markets head in Mexico, said at a press conference.