PARIS (Reuters) – French lawmakers will vote on Wednesday on no-confidence motions which are all but certain to oust the government, throwing the euro zone’s second-biggest economy deeper into a lingering political crisis.
Barring a last-minute surprise, the French government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier will be the first to be forced out by a no-confidence vote in more than 60 years, at a time when the country is struggling to tame a massive budget deficit.
In a TV interview on Tuesday, Barnier said he still believed his government could survive the vote, scheduled for the evening after a debate that starts at 4:00 p.m. (1500 GMT).
But the far-right National Rally (RN) made clear on Wednesday morning that it would vote to topple Barnier alongside leftwing parties. The left and the far right combined have enough votes to oust the government.
Asked if the RN would back the no-confidence vote, lawmaker Laure Lavalette told TF1 TV: “Without a doubt.”
Asked about potentially catastrophic consequences warned by Barnier and his ministers, Lavalette said: “There is no reason this leads to major chaos. Don’t play with fears … it’s not all going to crumble.”
Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau told CNews: “Nothing’s over until the vote but we can see we’re headed towards a censorship (of the government).”
The impending collapse of the government will leave a hole at the heart of the European Union at a time when Germany is also weakened and in election mode, just weeks ahead of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump re-entering the White House.
President Emmanuel Macron could well ask Barnier to stay on in a caretaker role as he seeks a new prime minister, which could happen only next year.
Bond investors are likely to spare France the dire financial “storm” Barnier has warned of, but the fallout from the political crisis will hurt businesses, consumers and taxpayers, economists and experts have told Reuters.
“This is a slow-burning crisis which will lead to an ongoing widening of spreads and an ongoing deterioration of sovereign creditworthiness,” said Union Investment’s head of fixed income and FX Christian Kopf.
“But for the time being, I do not see the ingredients for this to totally get out of hand and morph into an outright sovereign debt crisis,” said Kopf, who is underweight French debt.