(Reuters) – Brokerages, including Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) and Goldman Sachs, have reiterated their expectation of a quarter-point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve at the central bank’s policy meeting later on Wednesday.
Some observers are forecasting a “hawkish cut”, while the focus will also be on policymakers’ updated interest rate outlooks and economic forecasts covering the first months of the incoming Trump administration.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of Fed’s decision:
Rate cut estimates (in bps)
Brokerages Dec 2024 2025 Fed Funds Rate
BofA Global 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
Research June)
Barclays (LON:) 25 50 3.75%-4.00% (end of
2025)
Macquarie 25 25 4.00%-4.25%
Goldman Sachs 25 75 3.50%-3.75% (through
(through September 2025)
September
2025)
J.P.Morgan 25 75(throug 3.75% (through
h September 2025)
September
2025)
*UBS Global 25 125 3.00%-3.25% (through
Research end of 2025)
TD Securities 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Morgan Stanley 25 100 3.375% (Q4 2025)
(through
June
2025)
Jefferies 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
end of 2025)
Nomura 25 25 4.00%-4.25% (through
end of 2025)
*UBS Global Wealth 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through
Management end of 2025)
Deutsche Bank (ETR:) 25 No Rate 4.375%
Cuts
Citigroup (NYSE:) 25 – 3.00%-3.25% (H1
2025)
Societe Generale (OTC:) 25 – –
HSBC 25 100 3.25%-3.50%
Wells Fargo (NYSE:) 25 25 4.00%-4.25%
Investment
Institute
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
