By Liz Lee and Joe Cash
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports likely grew in November, slower than last month’s bumper data but continuing an upbeat trend as Chinese exporters likely frontloaded shipments amid growing tariff risks from the incoming U.S. administration.
Outbound shipments are expected to have risen 8.5% year-on-year by value in November, the median forecast of 22 economists in a Reuters poll showed, compared to a 12.7% jump in October.
Imports likely grew marginally at 0.3%, creeping back into the positive from a 2.3% decline in October.
The forecast indicates another month of buoyant trade data scheduled for release on Tuesday, bucking broader slowdown in global demand.
Imports to China’s $19-trillion economy likely rose on continued strong demand for chipmaking equipment prompted by U.S. chip curbs.
Meanwhile, South Korea, a leading indicator of China’s imports, reported a fourth-straight month of slowing exports growth in November, hitting a 14-month low, as shipments to the U.S. and China fell amid tariff uncertainty.
Economists expect Chinese exporters to have been frontloading shipments ahead of higher tariffs when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office, as U.S. manufacturers also frontload imports to mitigate expected cost pressures.
Trump warned of 10% additional tariffs on Chinese goods, after already vowing to slap tariffs in excess of 60% during his campaign.
But even before Trump won the election and swiftly staged his comeback with trade threats, analysts believed Chinese factories were slashing prices to attract orders, bracing for tariff risks from China’s largest trading partner.
Meanwhile, unresolved tensions with the European Union over tariffs of up to 45.3% on China-made electric vehicles threatens to open a second front in Beijing’s trade war with the west.
China’s factory activity expanded modestly a second straight month in November, an official survey showed, with manufacturers reporting the best business conditions in seven months. That should point to a pick-up in exports, Barclays (LON:BARC) Research estimates.
Upbeat exports have been a silver lining to China’s wobbly economy, which is struggling to overcome weak domestic demand and a protracted property market crisis.
The government has dished out stimulus measures to boost the economy, including a 10 trillion yuan($1.4 trillion) debt package last month aimed at stabilising local government and property developers’ balance sheet.
More stimulus measures were in the pipeline, but no details on size or timing have been announced.
Government advisers are urging for more stimulus ahead of the closed-door annual Central Economic Work Conference this month, when top leaders discuss 2025 policies and goals, flagging caution against becoming too reliant on outbound shipments for growth.
China’s November trade surplus is forecast at $95 billion, down from $95.72 billion in October.